The impact of global warming on U.S. hurricane landfall: A storyline approach

Abstract The projection of hurricane activity under climate change is challenging. The Imperial College Storm Model (IRIS) was used to analyse the impact of global warming on North Atlantic hurricane landfall through a storyline approach. The storyline assumes increases of potential intensity as the cause of change with no changes to tracks or basin frequency. This allows study of both recent trends and projections for the first time in a consistent way. The observed hurricane intensification is simulated but underestimated. For a +2°C global warming scenario hurricanes of intensity Category 4 and above become 62% more likely in the basin and nearly twice (92%) more likely at landfall. The future number of hurricanes, their decay and tracks are uncertain and their impact is examined by sensitivity studies. Reduction of the basin count offsets warming driven landfall frequency increases only for weaker hurricanes. The increased frequency and fraction of the most damaging landfalling hurricanes is controlled by changes in potential intensity.