General Patterns and Differences of Epidemic Spread COVID-19

A simple analytical model that takes into account the influence of blocking, mass vaccination and virus mutations on the intensity of COVID 19 epidemic spread is described. The results of the proposed model are in good agreement with relevant statistical data. The model uses two empirical parameters, one of which is weakly dependent on the virus strain and the other is functionally related to the blocking efficiency. Blocking efficiency depends on the behavioral characteristics of individuals, including age, and the socio-ethnic composition of the population. The psychological disposition of the population has a great influence on the development of the epidemic. In regions that are similar in their psychological and behavioral parameters, the epidemic develops in the same way. This article presents some preliminary data on the assessment of the behavioral characteristics of the population during the spread of the epidemic. The choice of settlements with homogeneous behavioral characteristics will make it possible to increase the reliability of forecast calculations of epidemic development and even to extend the results of model experimental studies conducted in small areas to the analysis of epidemics in large regions in different countries.