Economic Impacts of Decarbonizing the LNG Fleet in the Baltic Sea

The article addresses the issue of liquefied natural gas (LNG) distribution as a marine fuel, analyzing both ecological and economic aspects in the context of the Baltic Sea basin. The authors emphasize that LNG plays an increasingly significant role in the global energy balance, and its application in maritime transport is crucial for implementing sustainable development policies and advancing the energy transition. From an ecological perspective, LNG offers a substantial reduction in harmful emissions compared with conventional marine fuels such as marine diesel oil (MDO) and heavy fuel oil (HFO). In particular, the use of LNG results in lower emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), sulfur oxides (SOx), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and particulate matter (PM). The reduction in these pollutants is essential not only for improving air quality in port and coastal areas but also for mitigating global environmental impacts, including climate change. On the economic side, the article focuses on the cost structure of LNG distribution, highlighting that its price dynamics are subject to significant fluctuations. These variations are driven by geopolitical developments, crude oil price volatility, environmental regulations, and the expansion of bunkering infrastructure. From an economic perspective, LNG prices show significant volatility depending on the year and market conditions. Between 2018 and 2023, LNG prices ranged from approximately 450 to 530 USD/ton, at times exceeding the cost of HFO (400–550 USD/ton) but in some years remaining cheaper. In comparison, MDO prices were consistently the highest, increasing over the analyzed period from 600 USD/ton to over 720 USD/ton. This variability results from geopolitical factors, supply and demand dynamics, and environmental regulations, which highlight the strategic importance of LNG as a transitional fuel in shipping. The purpose of this study is to examine the role of LNG as an alternative fuel for shipping in the Baltic Sea, with particular emphasis on the scale of vessel emissions and the key factors influencing its distribution costs.