Study on Qinghai Province Residents’ Perception of Grassland Fire Risk and Influencing Factors

Grassland fire risk perception constitutes a fundamental element of fire risk assessment and underpins the evaluation of response capacities in grassland regions. This study examines Qinghai Province, the fourth-largest pastoral region in China, as a case study to develop an evaluation index system for assessing residents’ perceptions of grassland fire risk. Using micro-level survey data, the study quantifies these perceptions and applies a quantile regression model to investigate influencing factors. The results indicate that: (1) the average grassland fire risk perception index among residents in Qinghai Province’s grassland areas is 0.509, with response behaviors contributing the most and response attitudes contributing the least; (2) Residents in agricultural areas perceive higher risks than those in semi-agricultural/semi-pastoral or purely pastoral areas, and individuals in regions with moderate dependency ratios and moderate fire-susceptibility conditions demonstrate the highest performance, whereas those in pastoral and high-susceptibility zones exhibit signs of “risk desensitization”; (3) risk communication and information dissemination are the primary drivers of enhanced perception, followed by climate variables, whereas individual characteristics of residents attributes exert no significant effect. It is recommended to monitor the impacts of climate change on fire risk patterns, update risk information dynamically, address deficits in residents’ cognition and capabilities, strengthen behavioral guidance and capacity-building initiatives, and foster a transition from passive acceptance to active engagement, thereby enhancing both cognitive and behavioral responses to grassland fires.