Normative Data, Predictive Validity, and Factor Structure of a Fourth-Generation Risk Assessment Tool (ORAC-PCQ) in a Population of Adjudicated Individuals Serving Short Sentences in the Province of Québec (Canada)

This study examines the psychometric properties of the ORAC-PCQ, a fourth-generation actuarial tool designed to assess recidivism risk and criminogenic needs among individuals serving short sentences in Quebec. The instrument consists of three sections: Sociocriminological Profile (eight items), Criminogenic Needs (16 items), and Clinical Information (26 unscored items). Based on a sample of 14,320 individuals, we report normative data, optimal cutoff scores, and predictive validity across four subgroups defined by gender and Indigenous status. The ORAC-PCQ demonstrated satisfactory overall predictive accuracy (AUC = .75), with slightly higher values for non-Indigenous individuals and women. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses revealed a stable four-factor structure—Criminal Background, Substance Abuse, Interpersonal Conflicts, and Employment Problems—across all groups, supporting structural validity and measurement invariance. These findings provide initial evidence of both construct and predictive validity for a new risk assessment tool specifically tailored to short-sentence populations.