Responsible AI-Enabled Infodemic Management: A Hypergraph-Based Infodemic Topic Prediction Framework

Infodemic is a significant concern for society, and numerous studies have explored artificial intelligence (AI)-based solutions to manage it. However, existing methods fail to make sense of the complex situation of infodemic and fail to manage infodemic in a proactive manner. To tackle this challenge, we formalize infodemic topic prediction (ITP) as a distinct research problem. ITP aims to identify emerging topics to provide a global view of the situation, as well as to predict the probability of a topic becoming an infodemic to enable proactive management. Although some relevant methods exist, they are insufficient in modeling the intertopic relationships where each topic is closely connected to all others in a group of topics (called multilateral intertopic relationships). This study proposes a new hypergraph-based ITP framework that models the multilateral intertopic relationship with a novel hypergraph. Specifically, we introduce a novel temporal topic hypergraph (TTH) where topics are treated as nodes, and the multilateral intertopic relationships in both semantic and temporal perspectives are modeled by hyperedges. The main novelties are twofold. First, our TTH is a novel hypergraph that can cope with newly emerged topics through the proposed directed and undirected hyperedges. Second, we propose a novel similarity-based transformation method (STM) that reduces the complexity of hypergraph transformation from [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text], making it scalable for social media data. Evaluations on infodemics during the COVID-19 and the Mpox pandemic demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework. This study contributes to responsible infodemic management by formalizing the task of ITP and introducing a novel framework for it, which enables public health organizations, social media platforms, and policymakers to proactively make sense of and effectively respond to infodemic. History: This paper has been accepted by Kaushik Dutta for the Special Issue on the Responsible AI and Data Science for Social Good. Funding: L. Zhao, S. Ding, Y. Chai and S. Yang are supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [Grants 72293581, 72188101, 72342011, and 72322019]. J. Xie and X. Fang are not supported by any funds and are not associated with any of the above mentioned funds. Supplemental Material: The software that supports the findings of this study is available within the paper and its Supplemental Information ( https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/suppl/10.1287/ijoc.2024.0660 ) as well as from the IJOC GitHub software repository ( https://github.com/INFORMSJoC/2024.0660 ). The complete IJOC Software and Data Repository is available at https://informsjoc.github.io/ .