GIS-Based Multi-Criteria Assessment of Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) Zones Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) Method in Southern Kazakhstan

Southern Kazakhstan, particularly the Zhambyl Region, is facing increasing groundwater stress due to climate change, degradation of irrigation infrastructure, and unsustainable water use. Despite substantial renewable groundwater reserves (8.33 km3/year), irrigation still relies on ephemeral surface flow. This study delineates priority zones for Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) using a GIS-based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis framework integrated with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Nine hydrogeological criteria were incorporated: shallow aquifer depth, groundwater salinity, precipitation, terrain slope, soil texture, land use/land cover, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), drainage density, and lineament density. Each parameter was normalized to a five-class suitability scale and weighted through expert-informed pairwise comparisons. The MAR suitability map identifies about 19% of the region (27,060 km2) as highly favorable for implementation. Field investigations at eleven groundwater sites in 2024 corroborate model results, providing aquifer depth, quality, and infiltration data. The most suitable areas are concentrated on Quaternary alluvial–proluvial fans near the Kyrgyz Alatau foothills and the Talas-Assa interfluve. Three hydrostratigraphic settings were identified: unconfined alluvial aquifers, Neogene–Quaternary unconsolidated sediments, and fractured Carboniferous carbonates. Recommended MAR methods include infiltration galleries, check dams, and injection wells. The proposed approach, validated through consistency analysis (Consistency Ratio ≤ 0.1), demonstrates the applicability of integrated geospatial and field methods for site-specific MAR planning. Strategic MAR deployment could restore productivity to 37,500 ha of degraded irrigated lands and improve groundwater resilience. These findings provide a practical framework for policymakers and water management authorities to optimize groundwater use and enhance agricultural sustainability under changing climatic conditions.