Climate vulnerability and risk assessment in low-lying coastal cities of Bangladesh using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) approach

ABSTRACT Coastal cities have become the hotspots for climate migrants, leading to unplanned urbanization and further increasing the vulnerability and risk of climate change. The study assessed the vulnerability and risk index in 22 urbanizing cities in 10 coastal districts following the IPCC AR5 framework and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) approach. Field investigation, Key Informant Interviews (KIIs), and Focused Group Discussions (FGDs) identified key natural and physical stressors. The main sources of vulnerability include riverbank erosion, storm surge, salinity intrusion, waterlogging, weak infrastructure, and water scarcity. The main concern regarding natural and physical vulnerability stress is waterlogging, which is exacerbated by inadequate drainage, solid waste dumping, canal siltation, and urban planning deficiencies. Critical infrastructure, including drains, canals, sluice gates, and roads, is deteriorating, compounding risks. Climate variability, extreme heat, erratic rainfall, and drought further threaten livelihoods, agriculture, and food security. Among 22 coastal cities, Chalna, Morrelganj, Kalaroa, Char Fasson, Kuakata, Lalmohan, Burhanuddin, Paikgachha, and Patharghata are highly vulnerable, with risks projected to escalate. Adaptation priorities include securing drinking water, canal dredging, restoring connectivity, strengthening sluice gates, improving drainage, waste management, and preserving forests. The findings provide critical guidance for prioritizing the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) implementation in coastal Bangladesh.