Abstract B006: Changes in prostate cancer stage-specific incidence rates 2008-2021 by neighborhood gentrification status in Philadelphia metropolitan area

Abstract Prostate cancer (PCa) is the most commonly diagnosed cancer in men in the United States, disproportionately affecting Black men and residents of urban lower-income neighborhoods. However, neighborhoods and their demographic structure can change over time in response to processes like gentrification—a socio-demographic transformation process that typically occurs alongside profit-driven housing redevelopment in historically disinvested communities, frequently leading to population displacement. Although gentrification may positively affect neighborhoods by improving the built environment, its effect on cancer-related health outcomes remains largely unknown. In the present study, we evaluated annual stage-specific age-adjusted incidence rates (IRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) from 2008–2021 in the Philadelphia metropolitan area in Pennsylvania, overall and by neighborhood gentrification status (ineligible for gentrification, earlier gentrification, recent gentrification, not gentrified). The study population was obtained from the Pennsylvania Cancer Registry and included all men aged ≥20 years diagnosed with localized (n=26,517) and advanced (regional and distant combined, n=6,880) stage PCa. Neighborhood gentrification status was defined using US Census and American Community Survey data between 2000 and 2018. Cases were linked to neighborhood gentrification status based on their residential census tract at the time of diagnosis. Overall, localized-stage IRs declined from 163.1 (95% CI: 156.3–169.9) in 2008 to 101.2 (95% CI: 96.2–106.2) in 2013, and declined further from 106.7 (95% CI: 101.9–111.5) in 2019 to 77.1 (95% CI: 73.1–81.2) in 2021. In contrast, advanced-stage IRs increased consistently from 24.3 (95% CI: 21.7–26.9) in 2008 to 35.8 (95% CI: 33.0–38.7) in 2019 but declined to 29.9 (95% CI: 27.4–32.5) in 2021. Both localized- and advanced-stage IRs did not vary substantially by neighborhood gentrification status and reflected the overall trends. However, neighborhoods that gentrified earlier experienced the largest decline in localized-stage IRs (59%), while neighborhoods that gentrified recently experienced the smallest increase in advanced-stage IRs (7%). In this study, there were no substantial differences in stage-specific IRs by neighborhood gentrification status. However, given the observed trend difference in stage-specific IRs between neighborhoods that gentrified earlier and recently, more surveillance studies are needed to observe future developments. Additionally, future studies should include residential histories to evaluate whether changes in residence of cancer patients and socioeconomic population characteristics in these areas after the onset of gentrification may have contributed to the neighborhood-level IRs for different PCa stages. Lastly, the concerning rise in advanced-stage IRs must be further evaluated. Citation Format: Daniel Wiese, Ann C. Klassen, Scott W. Keith, Jenna Kantor, Michelle Botyrius, Kevin A. Henry, Charnita Zeigler-Johnson. Changes in prostate cancer stage-specific incidence rates 2008-2021 by neighborhood gentrification status in Philadelphia metropolitan area [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 18th AACR Conference on the Science of Cancer Health Disparities; 2025 Sep 18-21; Baltimore, MD. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2025;34(9 Suppl):Abstract nr B006.