Long-term projections of electricity demand during the transition to carbon neutrality

The study discusses projections of electricity demand in the context of decarbonization of the Russian economy. We analyze the current state, long-term trends, and new applications of electricity and low-carbon technologies in major sectors of the economy. The study relies on a set of interrelated optimization, simulation, and input-output models as its methodological backbone. Each of the models serves its specific purpose and is tailored to a specific level of data aggregation. We report our projections of the dynamics of electricity demand for one of the scenarios of economic development to 2050 under decarbonization of the Russian economy. The study also provides estimates of extra demand for electricity resulting from intensive electrification of industrial and household processes, as well as electric transport development. We provide estimates of the possible impact of carbon tax on the prospective mix of power plants.