Long-Term Global Trends in Vineyard Coverage and Fresh Grape Production

Monitoring and tracking the long-term dynamics of vineyard coverage and fresh grape production can support sustainable agricultural planning under evolving climate, market, and land-use pressures. This study presents a comprehensive, data-driven analysis of global viticulture trends from 1961 to 2023, integrating the official statistical database of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAOSTAT) for grape-producing countries. We applied statistical trend analysis (Mann–Kendall test), Random Forest regression modeling, cross-correlation functions, and dissimilarity analysis to examine patterns and drivers of change in vineyard area, production volume, yield efficiency, and land-use intensity. Our results reveal a significant global decoupling of production from vineyard areas, driven by increasing yields and technological intensification, particularly in rapidly expanding table grape markets in Asia. While traditional European wine regions are reducing vineyard coverage, emerging producers such as China and India are achieving high production with improved land efficiency. Production volume emerged as the dominant predictor of vineyard-harvested areas, while climatic factors, urbanization, and socio-economic dynamics also exerted significant influence. Our findings point to growing polarization in production amounts, alongside convergence in yield and management efficiency across countries. These findings contribute to the understanding of global viticulture transformation and provide insights into optimizing land-use strategies for sustainable grape production under climate change and market evolution.