Assessing the Urban Expansion Level and Its Impact on Forest Cover Loss in Rwanda: A Case of Masaka Sector, Rwanda (2000 - 2024)

Urban expansion is a key driver of environmental change, often contributing to deforestation. This study aims to assess the extent of urban expansion and its impact on forest cover loss in the Masaka Sector of Rwanda (2000 - 2024). Using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing techniques, multi-temporal satellite images (2000, 2014, and 2024) were analysed to quantify land use and land cover (LULC) changes over the study period. The results indicate a significant increase in urbanised areas, accompanied by a notable decline in forest cover. Masaka sector experienced a dramatic 870.37% increase in urban areas, coinciding with a significant 79.74 % decline in forestland. Statistical analysis revealed a strong inverse correlation, indicating that urban expansion is a primary driver of deforestation in Masaka, as land is converted from forest to urban use, highlighting the pressures of population growth, infrastructure development, and land use policies on forest resources. The substantial loss of forest cover has profound implications for biodiversity, ecosystem services, and environmental sustainability. The findings highlight the urgent need for integrated land management strategies that prioritise sustainable urban planning and forest conservation to mitigate the negative impacts of rapid urbanisation. The research provides critical data to support policymakers and urban planners in balancing development with ecological sustainability.