Investigation of Prediction Accuracy of Hierarchical Linear Modelling and Artificial Neural Networks Methods on PISA 2018 Reading Literacy

In this research, it is aimed to compare hierarchical linear modelling and artificial neural network estimation methods in predicting students' reading comprehension success in the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) 2018 application. In accordance with this purpose, it is planned to determine how students' PISA success status is estimated at student and school level, the data mining method used in estimation and the explained variance and error values of multilevel modelling. The type of study is, in a way, relational research because of the establishment of models in which there are relationships between dependent and independent variables. On the other hand, it is descriptive research in terms of performing analyses with two methods for each country sampled in the study and comparing the results obtained in terms of explained variance and error values. In this research, the performance of data mining techniques (artificial neural networks – ANN) and multilevel analysis methods (hierarchical linear modeling – HLM) in the field of education is evaluated. It has been determined that HLM carries out the estimation process with lower error and higher R^2 than ANN in the analysis of multi-level data. In addition, HLM provides more information about the predictive level of the variables and the variance that is not explained by the variables in the model compared to ANN. For this reason, HLM analysis was used to examine the variables that affect reading comprehension success in the study. As a result, it was seen that the student level and school level variables added to the model had a statistically significant effect on reading comprehension achievement. While teacher-directed instruction and lack of educational material at school cause negative effects on reading comprehension success, it has been determined that economic-social-cultural situation, metacognitive strategies, disciplinary climate in the classroom, teacher support, and staff shortage variables have positive effects. The results obtained are generally in agreement with similar studies in the literature.