Deep Learning-Based Short- and Mid-Term Surface and Subsurface Soil Moisture Projections from Remote Sensing and Digital Soil Maps

Accurate real-time information about soil moisture (SM) at a large scale is essential for improving hydrological modeling, managing water resources, and monitoring extreme weather events. This study presents a framework using convolutional long short-term memory (ConvLSTM) network to produce short- (1, 3, and 7 days ahead) and mid-term (14 and 30 days ahead) forecasts of SM at surface (0–10 cm) and subsurface (10–40 and 40–100 cm) soil layers across the contiguous U.S. The model was trained with five-year period (2018–2022) datasets including Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) level 3 ancillary covariables, North American Land Data Assimilation System phase 2 (NLDAS-2) SM product, shortwave infrared reflectance from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and terrain features (e.g., elevation, slope, curvature), as well as soil texture and bulk density maps from the Soil Landscape of the United States (SOLUS100) database. To develop and evaluate the model, the dataset was divided into three subsets: training (January 2018–January 2021), validation (2021), and testing (2022). The outputs were validated with observed in situ data from the Soil Climate Analysis Network (SCAN) and the United States Climate Reference Network (USCRN) soil moisture networks. The results indicated that the accuracy of SM forecasts decreased with increasing lead time, particularly in the surface (0–10 cm) and subsurface (10–40 cm) layers, where strong fluctuations driven by rainfall variability and evapotranspiration fluxes introduced greater uncertainty. Across all soil layers and lead times, the model achieved a median unbiased root mean square error (ubRMSE) of 0.04 cm3 cm−3 with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.61. Further, the performance of the model was evaluated with respect to both land cover and soil texture databases. Forecast accuracy was highest in coarse-textured soils, followed by medium- and fine-textured soils, likely because the greater penetration depth of microwave observations improves SM retrieval in sandy soils. Among land cover types, performance was strongest in grasslands and savannas and weakest in dense forests and shrublands, where dense vegetation attenuates the microwave signal and reduces SM estimation accuracy. These results demonstrate that the ConvLSTM framework provides skillful short- and mid-term forecasts of surface and subsurface soil moisture, offering valuable support for large-scale drought and flood monitoring.