An Interpretable Hybrid Fault Prediction Framework Using XGBoost and a Probabilistic Graphical Model for Predictive Maintenance: A Case Study in Textile Manufacturing

This paper proposes a hybrid predictive maintenance framework that combines the discriminative power of XGBoost with the interpretability of a Bayesian Network automatically learned from sensor data. Targeted at textile manufacturing equipment operating under Industry 4.0 conditions, the system addresses the trade-off between early fault detection and decision transparency. Sensor data, including vibration, temperature, and electric current, were collected from a multi-needle quilting machine using a custom IoT-based platform. A degradation-aware labeling scheme was implemented using historical maintenance logs to assign semantic labels to sensor readings. A Bayesian Network structure was learned from this data via a Hill Climbing algorithm optimized with the Bayesian Information Criterion, capturing interpretable causal dependencies. In parallel, an XGBoost model was trained to improve classification accuracy for incipient faults. Experimental results demonstrate that XGBoost achieved an F1-score of 0.967 on the high-degradation class, outperforming the Bayesian model in raw accuracy. However, the Bayesian Network provided transparent probabilistic reasoning and root cause explanation capabilities—essential for operator trust and human-in-the-loop diagnostics. The integration of both models yields a robust and interpretable solution for predictive maintenance, enabling early alerts, visual diagnostics, and scalable deployment. The proposed architecture is validated in a real production line and demonstrates the practical value of hybrid AI systems in bridging performance and interpretability for predictive maintenance in Industry 4.0 environments.