Scenario-Based Evaluation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Ecosystem-Based Mitigation Strategies in Kazakhstan

In the current context of the international climate agenda, understanding both the sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the mechanisms for their mitigation is a fundamental requirement for low-carbon development strategies. Kazakhstan has pledged to reduce its GHG emissions by 15–25% by 2030, relative to 1990 levels, and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. However, there is no unified methodology for comprehensively assessing the national carbon balance, particularly at the regional scale. This study addresses this gap by analyzing GHG emissions and carbon sequestration capacities across Kazakhstan’s regions using a sectoral disaggregation approach and scenario-based modeling aligned with IPCC methods. Emission hotspots were identified in the energy sector (328 MtCO2-eq), agriculture (118 MtCO2-eq—primarily from pasturelands), and transport (7 MtCO2-eq). In contrast, current carbon sinks—mainly forest ecosystems and abandoned pasturelands—account for only 3.97 and 13.9 MtCO2-eq, respectively. The research evaluates the technical potential for emissions reduction through the best available technologies (BAT), livestock management, partial transition to gas-powered vehicles, and reforestation. A geoengineering scenario combining all measures suggests that Kazakhstan could meet its 2030 climate targets, although full carbon neutrality by 2060 would remain out of reach under current policy trajectories. The Akmola region is examined as a representative case study, demonstrating a possible 35% reduction in net emissions by 2035. This work contributes a regionally nuanced, data-driven framework for integrating ecosystem services into national climate policy and identifies nature-based solutions—especially forest management—as essential components of Kazakhstan’s decarbonization pathway, offering insights for other carbon-intensive economies.