Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Multi-Scale Equity Evaluation of Urban Rail Accessibility: Evidence from Hangzhou

In recent years, the rapid expansion of urban rail transit has significantly improved travel efficiency, yet it has also exacerbated spatial inequality in service coverage. Accessibility, as a fundamental metric for evaluating the equity of service distribution, remains limited by three major shortcomings in current assessment methods: the neglect of actual road network characteristics, reliance on a single static scale, and the absence of quantitative mechanisms to assess accessibility equity. These deficiencies hinder a comprehensive understanding of how equity evolves with the spatiotemporal dynamics of rail systems. To address the aforementioned issues, this study proposes an innovative spatiotemporally dynamic and multi-scale analytical framework for evaluating urban rail accessibility and its equity implications. Specifically, we develop a network-based buffer decay model to refine service population estimation by incorporating realistic walking paths, capturing both distance decay and road network constraints. The framework integrates multiple spatial analytical techniques, including the Gini coefficient, Lorenz curve, global and local spatial autocorrelation, center-of-gravity shift, and standard deviation ellipse, to quantitatively assess the equity and evolutionary patterns of accessibility across multiple spatial scales. Taking the central urban area of Hangzhou as a case study, this research investigates the spatiotemporal patterns and equity changes in metro station accessibility in 2019 and 2023. The results indicate that the expansion of the metro network has partially improved overall accessibility equity: the Gini coefficient at the TAZ (Traffic Analysis Zone) scale decreased from 0.56 to 0.425. Nevertheless, significant inequality remains at finer spatial resolutions (grid-level Gini coefficient = 0.404). In terms of spatial pattern, the core area (e.g., Wulin Square) forms a ‘high-high’ accessibility agglomeration area, while the urban fringe area (e.g., northern Yuhang) presents a ‘low-low’ agglomeration, and the problem of local ‘accessibility depression’ still exists. Additionally, the accessibility centroid has consistently shifted northwestward, and the long axis of the standard deviation ellipse has rotated from an east–west to a northwest-southeast orientation, indicating a growing spatial polarization between core and peripheral zones. The findings suggest that improving equity in urban rail accessibility cannot rely solely on expanding network size; rather, it requires coordinated strategies involving network structure optimization, branch line development, multimodal integration, and the construction of efficient transfer systems to promote more balanced and equitable spatial distribution of rail transit resources citywide.