Climate change, urbanisation and transmission potential: Aedes aegypti mosquito projections forecast future arboviral disease hotspots in Brazil

By directly linking mosquito abundance to SSP-specific emissions trajectories, our results show that climate mitigation can markedly reduce disease risk. Shifting from SSP5-8.5 to SSP1-2.6 could cut projected mosquito density increases from 31% to 11% nationally by 2080. The model's spatial granularity and integration of local administrative boundaries support its utility for national and sub-national health planning. Addressing compounded risks in vulnerable peri-urban and rural populations will require coordinated interventions that span climate policy, vector control, and health equity.