Evaluation of Monin‐Obukhov Similarity Theory Wind Profiles in Convective Storm Environments and Cold Pools at the ARM Southern Great Plains Atmospheric Observatory

Abstract Monin‐Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) is widely used in numerical weather prediction to model surface fluxes of momentum, heat, and water vapor. However, MOST is based on assumptions of steady state and horizontally homogeneous turbulence that can lead to prediction errors in and around convective storms. To understand the nature of these errors, we used wind and eddy covariance flux measurements from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains Atmospheric Observatory to evaluate MOST wind profiles in fair‐weather and convective storm environments, specifically those of mesoscale convective systems and ordinary thunderstorms. MOST wind profiles agreed well with observations in fair‐weather cases, while in convective storm cases the theory systematically overestimated shear in cold pools after gust front passage. Surface layer stability was found to be important in assessing MOST within convective storm environments. The overestimation of wind shear in cold pools suggests the role of non‐local fluxes in transferring momentum downward. We discuss reasons for differences and agreement with past studies, and conclude with recommendations to improve prediction of surface winds and fluxes in convective storm simulations.