A Flexible and Circular Management of Copper in Chile: New Perspectives Toward Sustainable Development

Abstract The growing global demand for copper, driven by its pivotal role in the energy transition and decarbonization, requires a rigorous assessment of its broad and complex impacts on the global supply chain. The entire copper value chain, from raw material extraction to intermediate and final products, needs to be assessed in terms of the three dimensions of sustainability—environmental, economic, and social—in different global demand scenarios. Leveraging flexibility methodologies, environmental supply chain management principles, and advanced simulation techniques, this research focuses primarily on the role of Chile, the world's leading copper producer, and China, a major consumer and refiner. The results indicate that strategic measures, such as imposing limits on concentrate exports and investing in increased domestic refining capacity, could reduce Chile's transportation carbon footprint by up to 15%, while simultaneously improving local GDP. This strategy, which involves domestic refining of concentrates for Subsequent export as refined copper to China, demonstrates environmental effectiveness by reducing transportation emissions and strong economic Sustainability, with potential revenues of between 474 billion € and 699 billion € under pessimistic and optimistic market scenarios. Furthermore, this approach strengthens Chile's position in the international copper market, reduces dependence on importing countries such as China, and diversifies export destinations. These findings highlight the potential for implementing flexible policies and strategic positioning within the global copper value chain to foster greater economic stability and mitigate geopolitical risks. Chile’s copper management is central to global supply security, energy transition efforts, and evolving geopolitical dynamics. This study provides valuable information to policymakers and industry stakeholders who share the same goal of creating a balance between economic growth and environmental sustainability.