Critical Role of Land Management Practices in Augmenting China’s Terrestrial Carbon Sink up to 2060
China's carbon neutrality goal hinges on augmenting its terrestrial carbon sink through land management practices and environmental changes. However, the magnitude of China's future terrestrial carbon sink and its contributing factors remain uncertain. Notably, there is a lack of appropriate tools to parse the contributions of individual land management practices (i.e., afforestation/reforestation, grassland grazing exclusion, and wood extraction) to China's future terrestrial carbon sink. Employing a process-based model, this study projected an increment of 84.8 Tg C yr<sup>-1</sup> in China's terrestrial carbon sink for 2021-2060 under the SSP1-2.6 scenario relative to the 2020 baseline of 224.1 Tg C yr<sup>-1</sup>. Land management practices, including afforestation and reforestation, reduced wood extraction, and grazing exclusion, were responsible for 96.8% of this increment, while environmental changes accounted for only 3.2% of this increment, with climate change nearly fully offsetting the contribution from atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> growth. China's terrestrial carbon sinks were estimated to range from 289.8 to 339.8 Tg C yr<sup>-1</sup> during 2021-2060 under different land management practices and environmental conditions. These findings highlight the dominant role of land management practices in augmenting carbon sequestration and provide critical insights for developing climate policies that support China's carbon neutrality goals.
Authors
- Lei Zhu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2146-6438)
- Feilong Shen (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0009-2097-5773)
- Pengyi Zhang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0344-0071)
- Jie Zhao (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8104-3920)
- J S Li (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0002-8119-3635)
- Zhongdian Zhang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8408-7964)
- Lele Wang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9111-5951)
- Mengyu Wang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6730-8080)
- Chao Yue (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0026-237X)
- Ziyu Zhang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9000-4555)
- Mengyang Xu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2552-4305)
- Qi Tian (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8897-1714)
- Junhao He (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0004-2215-1261)
- Yi Leng (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8667-6604)
Institutions
- Xinyang Normal University (CN)
- Linyi University (CN)
- Czech University of Life Sciences Prague (CZ)
- Institute of Soil and Water Conservation (CN)
- Ministry of Education (ME)
- Institute of Desertification Studies (CN)
- State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science (CN)
- Northwest A&F University (CN)
- Tsinghua University (CN)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Environmental Science & Technology
- Published
- 2025-09-18
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5c03106
- Citations
- 1
- Primary Topic
- Soil Carbon and Nitrogen Dynamics
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 1.19