Cosmic ray intensity forecast for the current century

To diagnose and forecast the state of the heliosphere, as well as space weather and climate, it is necessary to know the temporal changes of galactic cosmic rays flux at the Earth’s orbit. The aim of the work is to forecast the cosmic ray flux for the next century based on the relationship between the modulation of galactic cosmic rays and the characteristics of solar activity. For a long-term forecast, one parameter models of solar activity were used that determines the modulation of galactic cosmic rays – the number of sunspots or the potential of cosmic rays solar modulation. As a result, a long-term forecast of the cosmic ray flux was obtained based on the analysis of a dozen models of solar activity behavior for the next century. The analysis suggests that, contrary to earlier forecasts, the probability of a large solar minimum at the end of the 21st century is small. This is shown by the majority of long-term solar activity forecasts by various authors which was analyzed by us. An almost twofold increase in the level of solar activity is expected by the middle of the century and a subsequent transition to approximately current level at the end of the century. Reduced intensity of galactic cosmic rays is expected at the Earth’s orbit by mid-century.