Abstract B149: Demographic shifts and rising cancer burden in minortized populations in California

Abstract Background: Globally, demographic transitions in low- and middle-income countries are a major driver of the projected increase in cancer burden. The same analogy can be made for certain racial and ethnic populations in the United States. In California and elsewhere in the United States, some minoritized populations are experiencing demographic shifts, including population growth and aging, which are likely to contribute to a future rise in cancer burden. Methods: Using California Cancer Registry data, the number of invasive tumors from all sites in California in 2001-2021 (delay adjusted; excluding 2020 in trend analyses) were used to project the number of tumors in 2030 for the total population and for the following racial and ethnic groups: non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native (AIAN), non-Hispanic Asian American, Native Hawaiian, or Pacific Islander (AANHPI), non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, and non-Hispanic White (NHW). Analyses were conducted using a data-driven Joinpoint algorithm to estimate projections based on the annual average percentage change from a regression model fit to the observed data using Poisson variance and the weighted Bayesian Information Criterion model selection method. Results: Based on current cancer trends, it is projected that 1,035,323 tumors will occur in California in 2030, a 20.4% increase from the 860,093 incident tumors in 2021, with variation across racial and ethnic groups. The highest percent increase was among Hispanic residents (48.1%; from 120,987 tumors observed in 2021 to 179,123 tumors projected in 2030), followed by AANHPI individuals (47.1% from 56,024 to 82,405 tumors), AIAN individuals (40.2%; from 2,934 to 4,113 tumors) and Black individuals (27.1% from 95,350 to 121,210). NHW residents had the lowest projected increase (13.1%; from 575,051 to 650,473 tumors). Conclusions: Our results show substantial variation in the projected future cancer burden among California residents by race and ethnicity. Minoritized populations, including Hispanic, AANHPI, and AIAN individuals, are expected to experience the largest increases, with cancer cases projected to increase by more than 40% by 2030. Future analyses will examine trends by sex and specific cancer sites to inform targeted interventions based on modifiable risk factors and screening opportunities. These projections can support strategic planning by academic institutions, government agencies, and cancer centers to mitigate the anticipated burden and advance equity in cancer prevention and control. Citation Format: Elena Martinez, Katherine Lin, Alison J. Canchola, Scarlett L. Gomez, Jesse N. Nodora, Corinne McDaniels-Davidson. Demographic shifts and rising cancer burden in minortized populations in California [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 18th AACR Conference on the Science of Cancer Health Disparities; 2025 Sep 18-21; Baltimore, MD. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2025;34(9 Suppl):Abstract nr B149.