Site Shear Wave Velocity Prediction Model Considering Terrain Slope and Geological Age: A Case Study of Shandong Province, China

This study conducts a comparative analysis of the performance of five existing V S30 prediction models (B04, BEA11, MN15, DEA13, and WW15) using a borehole database from Shandong (SD) Province, China, and explores the reasons for the differences among these models. The comparison reveals that the DEA13 model demonstrates higher accuracy, and its use of fewer independent variables effectively avoids multicollinearity issues present in models with multiple predictors. Therefore, DEA13 is considered the most suitable base model for the study area. Building upon this, a novel V S30 prediction model is proposed, which integrates terrain slope and geological age information from borehole data. By classifying 1815 boreholes deeper than 30 m according to slope and geological age, the analysis shows significant variations in shear wave velocity ( V S ) characteristics across different slope and geological age groups. Specifically, boreholes in high‐slope areas generally exhibit higher V S , while those in low‐slope areas show lower V S , with this trend being more pronounced in the low‐slope range. Additionally, variations in V S across different geological ages are also observed, particularly in Quaternary and Neogene strata. To further enhance model accuracy, the proposed V S30 prediction model consists of 29 submodels, which comprehensively account for the effects of terrain slope and geological age. This model significantly improves the precision and reliability of V S prediction by reducing uncertainty when applied to borehole data under varying geological and terrain conditions. The model offers more accurate parameter support for V S30 extrapolation and holds great potential for applications in seismic site classification and zonation studies.