Risk-carrying capacity, homestead confirmation, and farmers’ homestead withdrawal willingness: Evidence from 6754 rural households in Jiangsu Province

This study investigates the effect of risk-carrying capacity ( RCC ) and homestead confirmation on farmers' homestead withdrawal willingness. The aim is to provide theoretical and practical guidance to enhance the utilization efficiency of rural homesteads and promote rural revitalization. Using a binary logistic model, we conduct a baseline analysis of withdrawal willingness, employ threshold regression to identify the dual-threshold effect of RCC , and construct a moderation effect model to explore the role of homestead confirmation in RCC 's effect on homestead withdrawal willingness. The findings are as follows: (1) RCC exhibits a significant dual-threshold effect on withdrawal willingness, with thresholds of 45.64 and 65.83. Below the first threshold, RCC negatively affects withdrawal willingness; in the moderate range, it positively affects withdrawal willingness; and above the second threshold, the negative effect reemerges. (2) There are significant differences in homestead confirmation's effect on withdrawal willingness. When RCC is low, a limited understanding of property rights results in a restraining effect on withdrawal willingness. In the moderate range, homestead confirmation significantly boosts withdrawal willingness by clarifying property boundaries and reducing transaction costs. When RCC is high, the main obstacle is the limitation imposed by excessive RCC , making the effect of homestead confirmation insignificant. (3) Homestead confirmation significantly moderates the relationship between RCC and withdrawal willingness. With low RCC , the moderating effect is insignificant; in the moderate range, homestead confirmation enhances the positive effect of RCC ; and with high RCC , it enhances the negative effect. We recommend that the government establish a diversified compensation mechanism to alleviate economic pressure on farmers during withdrawal, improve the property rights confirmation system to protect farmers' rights, and enhance policy promotion and education to improve farmers' understanding of rural homestead reforms. • Constructs an “Endogenous Endowment-Exogenous Environment-Response” framework. • Reveals dual-threshold effect of risk carrying capacity on land withdrawal intent. • Homestead confirmation has different effects on homestead withdrawal willingness across RCC levels. • Homestead confirmation can amplify or mitigate withdrawal depending on RCC. • Proposes differentiated policies, strengthened registration, and farmer education.