Scenario Projections of COVID-19 Burden in the US, 2024-2025
In this decision analytical modeling study of COVID-19 burden in the US in 2024 to 2025, ensemble projections suggested that although vaccinating high-risk groups had substantial benefits in reducing disease burden, maintaining the vaccine recommendation for all individuals had the potential to save thousands more lives. Despite divergence of projections from observed disease trends in 2024 to 2025-possibly driven by variant emergence patterns and immune escape-averted COVID-19 burden due to vaccination was robust across immune escape scenarios, emphasizing the substantial benefit of broader vaccine availability for all individuals.
Authors
- Jean‐Claude Thill (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6651-8123)
- Ajitesh Srivastava
- Clifton McKee (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6149-0598)
- Anass Bouchnita (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2729-6484)
- Pete Riley (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1859-456X)
- Sung-mok Jung (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0787-4515)
- Przemyslaw Porebski (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8012-5791)
- Madhav Marathe (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1653-0658)
- Daniel Janies (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7890-9906)
- Rajib Paul (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5120-7525)
- Kaiming Bi (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6234-6232)
- Samantha J. Bents (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0003-9298-945X)
- K.T. Sato (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3827-4459)
- Katriona Shea (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7607-8248)
- Justin Lessler (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9741-8109)
- Sean M. Moore (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9062-6100)
- Jessica T. Davis (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0726-1855)
- Alessandro Vespignani (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3419-4205)
- Sara L. Loo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9763-5587)
- Emily Howerton (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0639-3728)
- Shraddha Ramdas Bandekar (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5063-2290)
- James Turtle (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0735-7769)
- Srinivasan Venkatramanan (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0874-8692)
- Spencer J. Fox (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1969-3778)
- Claire P. Smith (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1069-9460)
- Joseph Chadi Lemaitre (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2677-6574)
- Matteo Chinazzi (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5955-1929)
- M. Ben-Nun (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9164-0008)
- Jiangzhuo Chen
- Majd Al Aawar (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0004-9026-9085)
- T. Alex Perkins (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7518-4014)
- Bryan Lewis (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0793-6082)
- Cécile Viboud (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3243-4711)
- Michael C. Runge (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8081-536X)
- Katie Yan (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8381-504X)
- Alison L. Hill (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6583-3623)
- Lucie Contamin (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5797-1279)
- Clara Bay (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4428-3001)
- Harry Hochheiser (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8793-9982)
- Shaun Truelove (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0538-0607)
- Lauren Ancel Meyers (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5828-8874)
- Erica C. Carcelén
- Shi Chen (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2316-111X)
- Emily Przykucki
Institutions
- University of North Carolina at Charlotte (US)
- University of Notre Dame (US)
- University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (US)
- University of Southern California (US)
- United States Geological Survey (US)
- Northeastern University (US)
- Pennsylvania State University (US)
- Johns Hopkins University (US)
- The University of Texas at El Paso (US)
- University of Georgia (US)
- University of Pittsburgh (US)
- Princeton University (US)
- Predictive Science (United States) (US)
- University of Virginia (US)
- The University of Texas at Austin (US)
- Fogarty International Center (US)
- The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston (US)
Publication Details
- Journal
- JAMA Network Open
- Published
- 2025-09-18
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2025.32469
- Citations
- 3
- Primary Topic
- COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 4.10