Why China is leading perovskite solar commercialization

China is by far the world’s largest carbon dioxide emitter, but the country also has an outsized role in low-carbon energy infrastructure. It already dominates silicon-based solar panel manufacturing, and now it’s leading the world in bringing much-hyped perovskite solar technology into mass production (PDF). Across the world, perovskites attract both enthusiasm and skepticism. Jenny Chase, head of solar analysis at the clean energy research firm BloombergNEF, is in the skeptical camp, emphasizing that perovskites must survive intense competition. Today, China makes 95% of all the world’s polycrystalline silicon, a critical raw material for solar panels, Chase says. But hundreds of gigawatts per year of solar manufacturing lines are sitting idle, mainly in China. “The solar manufacturing industry is in a bloodbath, prices aren’t covering cost, and the big players are laying off staff,” she says.Still, in China, government officials, researchers, and executives in industry are teaming up with academics to commercialize perovskites. Four start-ups are already selling megawatts’ worth of perovskite panels, more output than the rest of the world combined, and a fifth company, Wonder Solar, is due to join them later this year. All have plans to open factories in 2025 that will produce enough panels in a year to generate at least 1 GW of electricity.By comparison, companies in other countries are “more likely to struggle,” says Jian Zhao, a senior project manager at Mitsui & Co. Global Strategic Studies Institute. “While Japanese and European companies are competitive with China on the technological front, they will