A Construction Method for Typical Source-Load Chronological Scenarios Integrating Multiple Critical Characteristic Dimensions

The construction of typical source-load chronological scenarios is crucial for power system optimization scheduling and planning. Existing research on typical scenario construction involves limited dimensions and insufficient rationality verification indicators, which may lead to higher operational or planning costs for power systems. Thus, this study proposes a construction method for typical source-load chronological scenarios integrating multiple critical characteristic dimensions. First, considering the spatiotemporal correlations among wind, solar, and load, a scenario generation model based on multivariate joint probability distribution is proposed to generate sufficient scenario samples. Then, a multidimensional critical characteristic dimension identification method based on correlation analysis is proposed to extract indicators characterizing the critical features of wind-solar-load. Next, a typical scenario construction process based on density clustering algorithm is presented, using the critical characteristic indexes as clustering feature dimensions. Finally, scenario validity verification indicators are proposed. The proposed method is validated using wind-solar-load data from an actual system.

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Publication Details

Published
2025-07-04
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1109/icpet66029.2025.11160409
Primary Topic
Modeling and Simulation Systems
Type
article
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A Construction Method for Typical Source-Load Chronological Scenarios Integrating Multiple Critical Characteristic Dimensions

Haipeng Kang, Mengyao Zhang, Heng Zhang, Xu Ling et al.
Modeling and Simulation Systems
article

A Construction Method for Typical Source-Load Chronological Scenarios Integrating Multiple Critical Characteristic Dimensions

Haipeng Kang, Mengyao Zhang, Heng Zhang, Xu Ling, Xiaohu Zhang, Haozhong Cheng, Wei Lou
article en

Abstract

The construction of typical source-load chronological scenarios is crucial for power system optimization scheduling and planning. Existing research on typical scenario construction involves limited dimensions and insufficient rationality verification indicators, which may lead to higher operational or planning costs for power systems. Thus, this study proposes a construction method for typical source-load chronological scenarios integrating multiple critical characteristic dimensions. First, considering the spatiotemporal correlations among wind, solar, and load, a scenario generation model based on multivariate joint probability distribution is proposed to generate sufficient scenario samples. Then, a multidimensional critical characteristic dimension identification method based on correlation analysis is proposed to extract indicators characterizing the critical features of wind-solar-load. Next, a typical scenario construction process based on density clustering algorithm is presented, using the critical characteristic indexes as clustering feature dimensions. Finally, scenario validity verification indicators are proposed. The proposed method is validated using wind-solar-load data from an actual system.

State Grid Corporation of China (China) (CN), Shanghai Jiao Tong University (CN)
Openalex Percentile: Top 73%
Modeling and Simulation Systems
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