Research on Policy Synergy Mechanisms in Smart Manufacturing Innovation under the Dual-Carbon Context

The challenge of global response to climate change and achieving the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality is becoming more and more serious. The current policies are mostly oriented by short-term emission reduction indicators, which are contradictory to the long-term characteristics of intelligent manufacturing technology and lack of coordination mechanism, which may lead to technology hollowing out or policy implementation failure. Under the goal of double carbon, the research on technological innovation and policy synergy mechanism of intelligent manufacturing enterprises is the core proposition to solve the contradiction of "emission reduction growth". Based on the open operation data of 235 excellent intelligent factories published by the Ministry of industry and information technology in January 2025, this study uses gray model to predict the potential period of double carbon target (2060), uses system dynamics model to analyze the impact relationship between indicators, and puts forward policy suggestions through index interpretation. The study found that the influence of tax on intelligent manufacturing technology innovation in policy tools has been strengthened again, the time lag effect of policy intensity on technological innovation is still obvious, the formation of carbon emission reduction pressure has a reverse drive on policy intensity, and key emission control industries such as steel industry have a significant impact on technological innovation in other industries. This paper provides a new perspective and ideas for the policy design and implementation of intelligent manufacturing technology in the context of double carbon.