Can South Korea Meet Its 2030 Automotive Fuel Economy and Greenhouse Gas Targets? Technology Forecasting Using Data Envelopment Analysis

As part of its national strategy to reduce emissions in the transportation sector, the Korean government has established targets for average vehicle fuel economy and greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. However, recent trends have revealed only minimal improvements in vehicle performance. This study applied technology forecasting using data envelopment analysis to estimate the future technological performance of fuel economy and greenhouse gas emissions based on data from vehicles released in Korea between 2016 and 2024. The results show that while certain technologies—such as plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and liquefied petroleum gas vehicles—have improved steadily, gasoline vehicles, diesel vehicles, gasoline hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), and diesel HEVs have exhibited minimal improvement. Given the current target of a 33% electric vehicle (EV) market share by 2030, our analysis indicates that meeting the national fuel economy and greenhouse gas reduction goals under this scenario is unlikely. To achieve the 2030 targets, this study found that it is essential to increase the EV share to at least 50%.