The Trump treatment: a natural experiment in German public perception of the US

How does a historically turbulent week in transatlantic relations affect public perceptions of the USA and foreign and defence policy preferences in Germany? We address these questions using data from two surveys conducted in September/October 2023 (N ≈ 8900) and February/March 2025 (N ≈ 8600). The latter period, spanning 4 days before to 2 days after the highly contentious Oval Office meeting between US President Donald Trump, Vice President J.D. Vance, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, provides a natural experimental setting to assess shifts in German public opinion. Our findings indicate that this event reinforces longer-term trends: supporters of center parties (Christian Democrats, Social Democrats and Greens) already saw an adverse change in attitudes toward the USA. They were confirmed in this direction by the meeting. Yet, also on the political fringes, historically established certainties are shifting. Supporters of the populist radical right AfD shed their strong anti-Americanism in the wake of Trump's election victory and were not swayed in their views by the meeting. At the same time, supporters of the traditionally anti-militarist Left Party positioned themselves more positively toward a joint European army and the participation of German soldiers in a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine post-meeting.