Reduced Atlantic reef growth past 2 °C warming amplifies sea-level impacts

Coral reefs form complex physical structures that can help to mitigate coastal flooding risk<sup>1,2</sup>. This function will be reduced by sea-level rise (SLR) and impaired reef growth caused by climate change and local anthropogenic stressors<sup>3</sup>. Water depths above reef surfaces are projected to increase as a result, but the magnitudes and timescales of this increase are poorly constrained, which limits modelling of coastal vulnerability<sup>4,5</sup>. Here we analyse fossil reef deposits to constrain links between reef ecology and growth potential across more than 400 tropical western Atlantic sites, and assess the magnitudes of resultant above-reef increases in water depth through to 2100 under various shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) emission scenarios. Our analysis predicts that more than 70% of tropical western Atlantic reefs will transition into net erosional states by 2040, but that if warming exceeds 2 °C (SSP2-4.5 and higher), nearly all reefs (at least 99%) will be eroding by 2100. The divergent trajectories of reef growth and SLR will thus magnify the effects of SLR; increases in water depth of around 0.3-0.5 m above the present are projected under all warming scenarios by 2060, but depth increases of 0.7-1.2 m are predicted by 2100 under scenarios in which warming surpasses 2 °C. This would increase the risk of flooding along vulnerable reef-fronted coasts and modify nearshore hydrodynamics and ecosystems. Reef restoration offers one pathway back to higher reef growth<sup>6,7</sup>, but would dampen the effects of SLR in 2100 only by around 0.3-0.4 m, and only when combined with aggressive climate mitigation.

Authors

Institutions

Publication Details

Journal
Nature
Published
2025-09-17
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-09439-4
Citations
8
Primary Topic
Coral and Marine Ecosystems Studies
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
13.73

Funders

Controls
|||
ALL TIME
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
article

Reduced Atlantic reef growth past 2 °C warming amplifies sea-level impacts

Christopher Edward Cornwall, Steeve Comeau, Esmeralda Pérez‐Cervantes, Didier M. de Bakker et al.
8 citations
Nature
Coral and Marine Ecosystems Studies
13.73
article

Reduced Atlantic reef growth past 2 °C warming amplifies sea-level impacts

Christopher Edward Cornwall, Steeve Comeau, Esmeralda Pérez‐Cervantes, Didier M. de Bakker, Lauren T. Toth, John T. Morris, Alice E. Webb, Ian C. Enochs, Ben P. Harvey, Aaron O’Dea, William F. Precht, Chris T. Perry, Erin Dillon, Erik H. Meesters, Lorenzo Álvarez‐Filip
article en
8 citations

Abstract

Coral reefs form complex physical structures that can help to mitigate coastal flooding risk<sup>1,2</sup>. This function will be reduced by sea-level rise (SLR) and impaired reef growth caused by climate change and local anthropogenic stressors<sup>3</sup>. Water depths above reef surfaces are projected to increase as a result, but the magnitudes and timescales of this increase are poorly constrained, which limits modelling of coastal vulnerability<sup>4,5</sup>. Here we analyse fossil reef deposits to constrain links between reef ecology and growth potential across more than 400 tropical western Atlantic sites, and assess the magnitudes of resultant above-reef increases in water depth through to 2100 under various shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) emission scenarios. Our analysis predicts that more than 70% of tropical western Atlantic reefs will transition into net erosional states by 2040, but that if warming exceeds 2 °C (SSP2-4.5 and higher), nearly all reefs (at least 99%) will be eroding by 2100. The divergent trajectories of reef growth and SLR will thus magnify the effects of SLR; increases in water depth of around 0.3-0.5 m above the present are projected under all warming scenarios by 2060, but depth increases of 0.7-1.2 m are predicted by 2100 under scenarios in which warming surpasses 2 °C. This would increase the risk of flooding along vulnerable reef-fronted coasts and modify nearshore hydrodynamics and ecosystems. Reef restoration offers one pathway back to higher reef growth<sup>6,7</sup>, but would dampen the effects of SLR in 2100 only by around 0.3-0.4 m, and only when combined with aggressive climate mitigation.

NatureVol. 646(8085)
Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (PA), United States Geological Survey (US), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR), University of Miami (US), University of Tsukuba (JP), University of Exeter (GB), NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratories (US), Sorbonne Université (FR), Victoria University of Wellington (NZ), Secretaría Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación (PA), Department of Marine and Coastal Resources (TH), Instituto Nacional de Pediatria (MX), Laboratoire d’Océanographie de Villefranche (FR), Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (MX), Wageningen University & Research (NL)
Leverhulme Trust, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science
Openalex Percentile: Top 1%
Coral and Marine Ecosystems Studies
13.73
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
AI Navigator

Ask Laika to Summarize, Analyze, and Connect papers live on the map.

Summarize Papers & Methodologies

Extract key findings, datasets, and comparative methods across publications.

Benchmark Rankings & Visual Analytics

Rank top research institutions, authors, funders, topics, and journals by Field-Weighted Citation Impact (FWCI) and paper volume with instant charts.

Connect Distant Disciplines

Bridge topological clusters on the map to find hidden collaborative intersections.