Spatiotemporal trends in maize production and seasonal variability in Tanzania

This study aims to evaluate long-term trends and regional variability in maize production in Tanzania, specifically focusing on the influence of seasonal rainfall variability and other agroecological factors on yield, area harvested, and total output. Understanding these trends is vital for guiding national agricultural policies and ensuring food security amid increasing climate uncertainty. The analysis utilized secondary data from the Ministry of Agriculture (including the 2007 Agricultural Sample Census and the 2022 Annual Agricultural Sample Survey) and FAOSTAT (2007–2023), covering regional and national production indicators. Descriptive statistics, t-tests, Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and residual analysis were performed using Past4.03 and GenStat software to examine temporal and spatial changes in maize performance. Results indicated that national maize yields increased moderately between 2007 and 2022, with short rainy season yields rising from 1.2 t ha−1 to 1.5 t ha−1, and long rainy season yields from 1.3 t ha−1 to 1.8 t ha−1. National production fluctuated, peaking at 8.01 million tons in 2022. PCA revealed that rainfall distribution and regional factors explained 96.11% of production variability. Regionally, Arusha, Kilimanjaro, and Ruvuma showed significant gains in area planted and yields, while regions like Tanga and Shinyanga experienced production declines despite expanded cultivation. These results emphasize the uneven nature of maize productivity in Tanzania and highlight the importance of region-specific strategies to enhance resilience and optimize production.