Impact of Cold Wakes on Tropical Cyclone Rainfall under Global Warming

Abstract Tropical cyclone (TC)-induced cold wakes play a crucial role in regulating TC precipitation (TCP). However, the influence of air–sea coupling on TCP under global warming remains unclear. This study investigates the potential impact of air–sea interactions on TCP using coupled and uncoupled experiments under a future global warming scenario. Results indicate that cold wakes suppress precipitation in the TC inner-core region (∼300 km). Associated with global warming, the TCs’ cold wakes are progressively strengthened, leading to a more pronounced reduction in inner-core precipitation. Two dominate pathways are revealed by moisture budget analysis as responsible for the changes in TCP. The first is the direct modulation of TCP by cold wakes through their control over evaporation via air–sea interactions. The second is an indirect effect by weakening the TC intensity, thereby reducing moisture convergence and further suppressing TCP. The relative contributions of these two pathways depend on the time scale considered. In the future mean state, cold wakes reduce TCP by equally suppressing evaporation and decreasing moisture convergence through weakened TC intensity. The strengthening cold wakes under global warming lead to an amplifying trend of relative TCP decrease. These findings improve our understanding of air–sea interactions in shaping future TCP, offering valuable insights for enhancing climate projections and disaster preparedness.