Recovery of carbon dynamics, soil nutrients and tree diversity during secondary succession within the tropical dry forests in the Yucatán Peninsula

Tropical forests influence the global carbon (C) cycle, with tropical dry forests comprising 40-50 % of all total tropical forests, and the Neotropics contain more than half. Tropical dry forests have released significant amounts of C due to deforestation and degradation, yet they hold substantial potential for C sequestration in secondary vegetation and soils. While recovery rates and the impact of water availability on aboveground carbon stocks (AGC) and nutrients are well-studied, gaps remain in understanding key controls during secondary succession and their variation with water availability. Our study evaluates nutrient dynamics in the tropical dry forests of the Yucatán Peninsula by comparing two precipitation-defined forest types; tropical sub-deciduous forest (TsDF) and tropical deciduous forest (TDF). Using data from Mexico's National Forest Inventory and published soil studies, we removed pseudo-replicates through spatial and temporal aggregation, constructed chronosequences, and performed multivariate analyses and recovery curve modeling to assess changes in AGC, C sequestration, soil nutrients (C, nitrogen, phosphorus), and tree diversity. Our results show slower recovery of AGC and tree diversity in TsDF, while soil nutrients recover more rapidly in TDF. Aboveground C sequestration is influenced by nutrient co-limitation (C:N and C:P ratios), differing between TsDF and TDF. Secondary succession in tropical dry forests transitions from soil-dominated to vegetation-dominated processes, with edaphic resources playing a major role during early successional stages. Our findings suggest that integrating sustainable forest management with tree diversity conservation may offer promising pathways for enhancing C sequestration strategies in tropical dry forests.