Universal yet local: Estimating county-level fertility ideals and intentions in China

BACKGROUNDUnderstanding China's persistent low fertility requires detailed information regarding fertility attitudes at a finer geographic scale.However, data on fertility preferences at appropriate spatial resolutions are often unavailable. OBJECTIVEThis study aims to estimate county-level fertility ideals and intentions in China. METHODSThis study employs the multilevel regression and post-stratification method to estimate county-level fertility ideals and intentions.Fertility ideals and intentions data are drawn from a large national fertility survey, while post-stratification data come from the 2020 population census.The estimates are internally validated using a split sample approach and externally validated against independent national and regional surveys. RESULTSThe estimates reveal that the county-level average ideal number of children for women of reproductive age is 1.98 (ranging from 1.29 to 3.78), while the average for the intended number of children is 1.81, with a broader range (1.02 to 3.96).The spatial distribution of fertility ideals exhibits a north-south contrast, suggesting cultural influences on family norms.Fertility intentions show coastal-inland disparities, underscoring socioeconomic conditions.Within-province variations are no less than between-province variations.