Uncertainty Analysis of Distribution Network Carrying Capacity Considering the Economic Feasibility of Charging Facility Investment

The development and integration of charging facilities increasingly prominent challenges to the carrying capacity of the distribution network. This article first constructs a dual layer facility layout planning model based on the operational economy of typical charging facilities. Then, using uncertainty modeling methods, Monte Carlo analysis is conducted on facility utilization and charging demand is evaluated. Finally, based on the charging demand, the carrying capacity of the distribution network is analyzed and verified, in order to provide reference for the development plan of the distribution network to adapt to the rapid development of charging facilities in advance. Based on the analysis of the numerical examples, it can be concluded that using the random expected value model proposed in this paper to determine the planning scheme under the $90 \%$ probability scenario boundary as the output result can reduce the scale of distribution network renovation by about $2 \%$, thereby effectively exploring the priority renovation scope of the distribution network.