Climate change and irrigation management shape crop resilience in UAE arid agriculture: APSIM model-driven assessment

Climate change has intensified challenges to food security, compelling the United Arab Emirates (UAE) government to allocate significant resources and advanced technologies for assessing cropping systems performances across country. Crop modeling has emerged as cutting-edge tools for analyzing crop management and assessing water-soil resources usage and sustainability. This study applied a process-based crop model to evaluate performances of three annual crops—wheat, maize, and potato— under integrated climate change projections and irrigation management strategies within the UAE’s arid agroecosystems. APSIM-model was used to simulate crop eco-physiological responses, and assess their vulnerability–resilience profiles under combined climate-water stressors. Model calibration-validation processes were conducted using dataset encompassing crop phenological and productivity state variables. Time-series simulations were then performed under baseline-historical and future-projected period (1988–2100) defined by four Shared-Socioeconomic-Pathways (SSPs: 2.6–4.5–7.0–8.5). Results show that APSIM-model was successfully calibrated, and model validation further confirmed its robust accuracy in simulating crops development and yield prediction under the UAE’s agro-environmental conditions. Rising temperatures and water stress under medium–high emission scenarios (4.5–7.0–8.5) emerged as critical abiotic stressors, reducing wheat-yields up to half and maize-yields up to 75 %, and driving premature wheat and potato crop failure, particularly during the last two decades of the century. Leveraging APSIM-model for irrigation recommendations proved effective in ensuring maize efficient water-use, whereas it helps supporting appropriate potato scheduling across high-emissions scenarios. Findings highlighted the importance of investing in stress-tolerant crops and adapted varieties (e.g., C4 crops), alongside implementing UAE-specific soil–water management and climate-smart practices. • APSIM evaluation boosts confidence in its use to monitor crops in arid environment • Medium–high emissions could reduce yields up to 2-fold for wheat and 4-fold for maize • High emissions cause widespread early failure of wheat and potato crops by century’s end. • APSIM-based irrigation optimizes maize yield under all scenarios. • APSIM-based irrigation helps maintain optimal potato growing scheduling under high-emission scenarios.