China-Russia Relations in the Indo-Pacific After the Ukraine War: Unanticipated Hedging Opportunities for Moscow

After invading Ukraine in February 2022, Russia faced isolation from the West and has been viewed as increasingly dependent on China. However, Moscow’s embrace of China as an economic, military, and political ally is only part of the story, reflecting the two countries’ systemic balancing against the United States. Geopolitical complications in the Indo-Pacific after the Ukraine war – intensifying China-US rivalry, China’s tensions with India and Vietnam, and deteriorating trust in the United States as a security guarantor – have placed Russia in a position to diversify its regional economic and security bets, displaying hedging rather than unequivocal balancing behaviour.