From Fault Ruptures to Atmospheric Perturbations: Examining the 2016 Norcia Seismic Sequence

Abstract This study investigates lithosphere–atmosphere interactions during the 2016 Central Italy seismic sequence, providing the first systematic analysis of atmospheric impacts across the entire series within a complex tectonic setting. The static displacement fields of the main events were modeled using the Okada formulation and validated against GPS observations. Using realistic seismic inputs, including fault geometry and slip distribution, we ensured accurate source representation, crucial for simulating the generation of Acoustic Gravity Waves (AGWs). Our results demonstrate that earthquakes belonging to the same sequence, with similar origins and focal mechanisms, can nonetheless produce distinct co‐seismic atmospheric responses. The comparison between observations and our MILC model driven by the lithospheric constraints ensures the reliability of AGW. While moderate‐to‐strong events can generate AGWs, their detection could be hindered by concurrent meteorological variability. The strongest event of the analyzed seismic sequence exemplifies this complexity: while ERA5 data revealed AGWs, the contemporaneous synoptic weather charts, including mean sea level pressure and 500 hPa geopotential height fields, indicated active meteorological conditions over the study region, suggesting that part of the observed atmospheric response may have been influenced by background meteorological variability and highlighting the challenge of unambiguously separating seismogenic signatures from natural atmospheric variability. These findings strengthen the robustness and applicability of the LAIC modeling framework to real‐world scenarios. They provide critical insights into the variability of atmospheric responses to earthquakes and highlight future research toward the reliable characterization of co‐seismic lithosphere–atmosphere signals in the broader context of hazard assessment and risk mitigation.