A Curve-Fitting Approach for Generating Long-Term Projections of COVID-19 Mortality

When the COVID-19 pandemic started in early 2020, there was lack of understanding regarding its long-term impact. Available mathematical models were complex and typically provided short- and mid-term projections. The approach described generates long-term projections that are relatively easy to implement and can be enhanced to include other parameters such as vaccine impact or virus variants. The method could prove to be a valuable tool during a future pandemic.