How is social resilience possible? a qualitative comparative analysis based on the “Arab Spring”

Abstract Social resilience is crucial for a social system to effectively respond to various internal and external challenges. Since the COVID-19 pandemic, countries worldwide have faced increasingly complex challenges, highlighting the significance of social resilience research. The “Arab Spring” during 2010–2012 triggered continuous unrest, threatening social stability in MENA countries. This upheaval has become a focal point of political science research and provides a practical case for studying social resilience. Numerous scholars have conducted multi-dimensional analyses and discussions on the crisis causes of certain countries during the “Arab Spring”. Building upon previous researches, this article extends the research scope to all countries involved in the upheaval, employing fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis to examine the reasons for different resilience performances among countries during the “Arab Spring” and explore the mechanisms of social resilience. The result of the QCA analysis reveals distinct logics in social resilience construction between monarchical and republican countries: in republican countries, whether there was a history of serious unrest became the watershed for maintaining resilience; while in monarchical countries, the existence of serious ethnic and religious conflicts was the core driving factor. These findings identifies a paradox in social resilience construction: recent social stability actually becomes a factor weakening resilience, while past turbulent experiences enhance society’s ability to respond to shocks—this paradoxical finding provides insights for understanding the complex logic of social resilience.