Numerical simulation of a normalized time-fractional SUC epidemic model

We develop a normalized time-fractional susceptible-unidentified infected-confirmed (SUC) epidemic model that incorporates memory effects through fractional calculus to capture non-local time interactions. Unlike integer-order models, this model reflects how past states influence present transmission. Numerical simulations show that smaller fractional orders accelerate the decline of susceptible individuals and produce faster but lower infection peaks, while larger orders yield slower, oscillatory declines and delayed peaks, indicating prolonged outbreaks. Moreover, the confirmation parameter critically shapes epidemic dynamics, as higher values reduce infection spread and lower peak levels of unidentified and confirmed cases, and this result highlights its role in controlling epidemic progression.

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Publication Details

Journal
Computer Methods in Biomechanics & Biomedical Engineering
Published
2025-09-16
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1080/10255842.2025.2556313
Citations
1
Primary Topic
COVID-19 epidemiological studies
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
1.37
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article

Numerical simulation of a normalized time-fractional SUC epidemic model

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article

Numerical simulation of a normalized time-fractional SUC epidemic model

Hyundong Kim, Soobin Kwak, N.A. Jyoti, Junseok Kim, Chaeyoung Lee, Yunjae Nam
article en
1 citations

Abstract

We develop a normalized time-fractional susceptible-unidentified infected-confirmed (SUC) epidemic model that incorporates memory effects through fractional calculus to capture non-local time interactions. Unlike integer-order models, this model reflects how past states influence present transmission. Numerical simulations show that smaller fractional orders accelerate the decline of susceptible individuals and produce faster but lower infection peaks, while larger orders yield slower, oscillatory declines and delayed peaks, indicating prolonged outbreaks. Moreover, the confirmation parameter critically shapes epidemic dynamics, as higher values reduce infection spread and lower peak levels of unidentified and confirmed cases, and this result highlights its role in controlling epidemic progression.

Computer Methods in Biomechanics & Biomedical Engineering
Gangneung–Wonju National University (KR), Korea University (KR), Kyonggi University (KR), Financial Research (Hungary) (HU)
Openalex Percentile: Top 17%
COVID-19 epidemiological studies
1.37
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