Future Projections in Agricultural Drought Characteristics for Greece Under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Changes in agricultural drought frequency (DF), duration (DD) and severity (DS) in Greece are investigated based on 11 high-resolution EURO-CORDEX regional climate model simulations covering the period 1971–2100 under three different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) with the use of the SPI and SPEI. Increases in DF, DD and DS are more prominent in the 2071–2100 period under RCP8.5. Central and southern Greece, the Aegean islands and Crete experience the largest increases under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Under RCP2.6, changes in DD and DS are less pronounced, especially over northern Greece.