THE IMPACT OF FORECAST ACCURACY OF RES GENERATION CONNECTED TO THE DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM ON THE OPERATIONAL PLANNING OF THE TRANSMISSION SYSTEM

Although the share of renewable energy production (RES) at the distribution level in Serbia is currently relatively low, it is expected that its importance will grow in the future. Accurate forecasting of RES production at the DSO level is becoming crucial not only for analysis and operational planning of the transmission system but also for its control, as it can impact power flows, voltage profiles, transmission capacity calculations, and the overall reliability of the electricity system. This paper analyzes how deviations in the forecasts of RES production at the distribution level can affect the operational planning processes in the transmission system and, consequently, decision-making in real-time. Although the current impacts are not significant, timely preparation through improved forecasting methodologies and better coordination between DSOs and TSOs can contribute to more accurate analyses, more optimal use of network capacities, and more reliable operation of the electricity system. Through the analysis of possible scenarios, the paper highlights the need for improving data exchange and the development of forecasts to enable better operational planning. In this way, the impact of distributed RES production can be timely recognized and adequately taken into account, thereby improving transmission system control as the integration of renewable energy sources at lower voltage levels increases.