The Likelihood Of Improvement From High School Senior To College Freshman Year In 800 m Runners Competing In The NCAA: A Preliminary Analysis

In the transition from high school (HS) to college, track athletes enter training systems with frequencies, intensities, volumes, and pressures vastly different from what they are accustomed to. The substantial change in the training environment is assumed to improve performance but a data-driven appraisal of the change in performance that occurs during the transition from HS to college running is lacking. PURPOSE: To characterize the performance changes during the transition from HS senior to college freshman year in 800 m runners competing in the NCAA. METHODS: Using 800 m ranking lists from milesplit.com and TFRRS.org between 2008 and 2023, 13,061 male athletes who competed in both HS and NCAA track and field were identified. In this preliminary analysis and as proof of concept, we assessed the top 50 US high school 800 m runners between 2013 and 2016 who were in their senior year and who competed in the NCAA the following year. The average change between college freshman and HS senior year running times and the percentage of athletes who improved (College freshman - HS senior running time ≤ 0 s) were calculated. RESULTS: The average change from HS senior year to college freshman year running time was +0.46 ± 2.62 s; 51% of athletes improved their 800 m running time. However, on average, three of the four HS graduating classes showed worsened performance (2013: +0.506 ± 3.14 s (n = 24); 2014: +0.43 ± 1.93 s (n = 20); 2016: +1.41 ± 3.35 s (n = 22)). CONCLUSIONS: The results of this preliminary analysis challenge the common perception that athletes are likely to improve upon transitioning into the NCAA system. Instead, the likelihood of improvement appears to be only slightly better than chance in this small sample. Further analysis of a larger sample, inclusion of female athletes, a broader range of performances (100 m, 200 m, 400 m, 1600 m), and the use of advanced modeling strategies is ongoing with the goal to uncover factors that increase the likelihood of improvement from one competition level to the next.