The effects of ongoing internal immigration enforcement on the US agricultural labor supply

Abstract We demonstrate that unexpected increases in enforcement have a temporary but costly impact on labor supply among noncitizen farmworkers. Analyzing Current Population Survey data and immigration‐related arrests, we find that unexpected increases in immigration arrests decrease labor force participation (LFP) among noncitizen farmworkers by up to 3.4 percentage points and reduce weekly work hours by up to 23.1% per month. These effects translate into a 1.38 percentage point decline in LFP and a 9.08% reduction in weekly hours worked across farmworkers. Our results suggest that localized enforcement exerts downward pressure on immigrant populations during periods when policies are not activated.