Can Critical Speed Predict Middle Distance Running Performance?

Traditional methods used to predict performance (e.g., V̇O2max) in long distance runners (≥5000 m) present inaccuracies in groups of highly trained runners. Critical Speed (CS) and D′ have been used to predict running race performance (relative rank) in distances above 5000 m. PURPOSE: To evaluate the strength of Critical Speed and D′ to predict relative rank performance collegiate athletes in the middle-distance race of 5000 m. METHODS: Five participants (19 ± 1.52 yrs) completed one experimental session, four observational sessions, and one 5000 m race. The experimental session included a V̇O2max test, where maximal oxygen uptake and ventilatory threshold (VT) were recorded. Observational sessions recorded total time (seconds) in overground running at maximal effort around a standard 400 m outdoor track at three distances (1200 m, 3000 m, 4000 m). Following the observational sessions, CS was calculated as the slope in the distance time relationship and D′ defined as the y-intercept. One 5000 m race and relative finish position of each participant was recorded. Correlations (Pearsons’s product correlation) between relative rank and CS, D′, V̇O2max, VT, and HRMAX, were compared to investigate the strength of relationships. RESULTS: Relative rank and CS had a strong relationship, however not statistically significant (r = -.62, p = .13). Relative rank and D′ had a weak relationship that was not statistically significant (r = -.071, p = .45). In addition, relative rank and V̇O2max had a weak correlation that was not significant (r = .281, p = .32). Relative rank and ventilatory threshold (VT) had a strong but not significant relationship (r = -.66, p = .12). CONCLUSION: Although CS and D′ do not statistically correlate with relative rank of collegiate runners at the distance measured of 5000 m.