Study of the Correlation Between Water Resource Changes and Drought Indices in the Yinchuan Plain Based on Multi-Source Remote Sensing and Deep Learning

This study examines the intricate relationship between water resource dynamics and drought indices in the Yinchuan Plain, China, by integrating multi-source remote sensing data with advanced deep learning techniques. Using data from 2002 to 2022, we applied Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to model the spatiotemporal dynamics of water resources and their relationships with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Our findings reveal a strong correlation between total water resources and the SPEI (r = 0.81, p < 0.001), underscoring the pivotal role of evapotranspiration in this region’s water balance. The LSTM model outperformed traditional statistical methods, achieving a Root Mean Square Error of 0.142 for water resource predictions and 0.118 for drought index forecasts. Spatial analysis indicated stronger correlations in the northern Yinchuan Plain, likely influenced by its proximity to the Yellow River and regional water management practices. Wavelet coherence analysis identified significant coherence at the 6–12-month scale, highlighting the importance of seasonal to inter-annual strategies for water resource management. These results provide a robust foundation for developing effective water management policies and drought mitigation strategies in arid and semi-arid regions. The methodologies presented are broadly applicable to similar water-scarce regions, contributing to global efforts in sustainable water resource management under changing climatic conditions.