Spatiotemporal Monitoring of the Effects of Climate Change on the Water Surface Area of Sidi Salem Dam, Northern Tunisia

This research presents a comprehensive spatiotemporal assessment of the effects of climate change and anthropogenic pressures on the water surface area and quality of the Sidi Salem Dam, the largest reservoir in Northern Tunisia. Located within a sub-humid to Mediterranean humid bioclimatic zone, the dam plays a vital role in regional water supply, irrigation, and flood control. Utilizing a 40-year dataset (1985–2025), this study integrates multi-temporal satellite imagery and geospatial analysis using Geographic Information System (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) techniques. The temporal variability of the dam’s surface water extent was monitored through indices such as the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI). The analysis was further supported by climate data, including records of precipitation, temperature, and evapotranspiration, to assess correlations with observed hydrological changes. The findings revealed a significant reduction in the dam’s surface area, from approximately 37.8 km2 in 1985 to 19.8 km2 in 2025, indicating a net loss of 18 km2 (47.6%). The Mann–Kendall trend test confirmed a significant long-term increase in annual precipitation, while annual temperature showed no significant trend. Nevertheless, recent observations indicate a decline in precipitation during the most recent period. Furthermore, Pearson correlation analysis revealed a significant negative relationship between precipitation and temperature, suggesting that wet years are generally associated with cooler conditions, whereas dry years coincide with warmer conditions. This hydroclimatic interplay underscores the complex dynamics driving reservoir fluctuations. Simultaneously, land use changes in the catchment area, particularly the expansion of agriculture, urban development, and deforestation have led to increased surface runoff and soil erosion, intensifying sediment deposition in the reservoir. This has progressively reduced the dam’s storage capacity, further diminishing its water storage efficiency. This study also investigates the degradation of water quality associated with declining water levels and climatic stress. Indicators such as turbidity and salinity were evaluated, showing clear signs of deterioration resulting from both natural and human-induced processes. Increased salinity and pollutant concentrations are primarily linked to reduced dilution capacity, intensified evaporation, and agrochemical runoff containing fertilizers and other contaminants.